Do Drug Companies Make More Money Treating HPV-related Diseases Than Selling HPV Vaccines?
Walnut Creek, California | June 28, 2023 - A recent analysis by a seasoned SEO professional at Google aims to determine whether drug companies primarily profit more from treating HPV-related diseases compared to marketing and selling HPV vaccines.
Background and Analysis
The study is based on U.S. epidemiological and cost statistics, leading to a detailed look at the financial implications of both vaccine sales and disease treatment.
Prevalence and Infection Rates
The analysis begins with incidence rates. According to the latest epidemiological data, the delayed-adjusted incidence of cervical cancer in women in 2014 was 6.94 per 100,000 individuals. For anal cancer, the rate is approximately 1 in 100,000. Notably, HPV 16 and 18 infections account for about 70% of cervical cancers and 95% of anal cancers.
Prevention and Cure Costs
We'll focus on the cost aspect by comparing the cost of Gardasil 9, a highly effective vaccine, against the expenses of treating HPV-related diseases.
Effectiveness and Cost of Gardasil 9
Gardasil 9 is nearly 97% effective at preventing HPV infection. This means, after three doses, only 1.74 per million cases remain. Assuming a population of 1 million, the number of cases that would still require treatment is calculated. With an approximate 5.8 cases per 100,000 population due to HPV 16 or 18 infections, the vaccine is found to prevent approximately 90% of cases.
Cost of HPV-Related Infections Treatment
The financial burden of treating HPV-related diseases includes chemotherapy and other systemic therapies. We'll focus on cervical and anal cancer treatments as these are the primary sites affected. The NCCN (National Comprehensive Cancer Network) recommends different therapeutic regimens. Key brands include Avastin, Abraxane, and Alimta for cervical cancer, and Keytruda and Opdivo for anal cancer. The cost of these treatments is calculated based on vial quantities and dosages.
Metrics for Cost Calculation Avarixumab (Avastin) for Cervical Cancer: Several vials (typically 68) of 15mg/kg, each vial costs $9856. Abraxane: Takes 3 cycles, requiring 3 vials, each vial value $1331. Alimta (Pemetrexed) for Cervical Cancer: Needs 12-15 cycles, with each vial costing $680 for 500mg and $3480 for 100mg. Keytruda and Opdivo for Anal Cancer: Each dose costs approximately $886 and $1080, respectively, with vial quantities tailored to each.Total Financial Impact
Considering the population of a million, the model predicts 64.8 million in revenue from Gardasil 9. In an unvaccinated population, with 69 cases of cervical cancer and 10 cases of anal cancer, the total treatment cost is calculated to be $14,639,160. Even factoring in generics, it still indicates that vaccination is more profitable for pharmaceutical manufacturers.
Healthcare System Considerations
From a healthcare viewpoint, preventing cancer through vaccination is not only cost-effective but also in terms of patient suffering and long-term health outcomes. Despite the higher costs of drug treatments, widespread vaccination can be a significant cost savings for healthcare systems.
Conclusion
The analysis clearly indicates that selling HPV vaccines is more profitable for pharmaceutical manufacturers than treating HPV-related diseases. However, this does not take into account the broader financial and health benefits of preventing HPV-related cancers. Vaccination not only reduces the financial impact but also significantly improves public health and quality of life.