Elections in 2024: Predictions and Prospects for America's Future
The upcoming 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for American politics. Currently, Kamala Harris is emerging as a frontrunner to win the presidency, making her a favorite among many forecasters and voters. Even renowned analyst Nate Silver, who previously leaned towards a Donald Trump victory, has admitted that Kamala Harris is now the more likely winner.
Historical Surprises and Current Polling
Allan Lichtmann, a historian often referred to as the "Nostradamus" of polling, has correctly predicted the results of nine out of ten presidential elections since 1984. His latest prediction stands firm with Kamala Harris, having accurately forecasted only one election in the past, which was in 2000. Despite this high accuracy, even Lichtmann finds the current polling data ambiguous.
"Without enthusiasm," Allan comments on nearly every election where the polls provide so little clarity. 2020 was an outlier, and finding a reliable benchmark is challenging. The numbers are close, making the results heavily dependent on the weighting of the polls. More often than not, the data is influenced by the pollster's expectations, which circularly becomes the very thing the poll is meant to determine. Given the absence of a clear winner among the polls, predictions range from Trump's landslide victory to a Kamala Harris landslide to a closely contested result.
Key Polls and Their Insights
A notable exception to the general uncertainty is the historically highly-respected Selzer Iowa poll, conducted using old-fashioned random dialing with no fancy weighting. This poll has given its first indication that Kamala Harris could indeed win big, which, if accurate, could be a game-changer. However, many remain skeptical, and some believe the skewed results may reflect an oversampling of women, particularly those with landlines who are more likely to participate and favor Harris.
Others, like the betting markets, continue to predict Trump's victory. Prior to the Iowa poll, betting markets showed a 66-34 split in favor of Trump, a difference that did not change much with the Iowa results. Essex, a market expert, argues that betting markets, although not always accurate, do not lie. The idea of applying millions of dollars to artificially support a candidate's lead is misunderstood by those who believe in such tactics.
Future Possibilities and Concerns
The outcome could be a landslide for either candidate or a very tight race, and it might be settled early in the evening with the exit polls, or it could drag on until January if there are disputes over votes or voting irregularities.
A decisive and widely accepted result is the best scenario for the United States. A close and contentious result could lead to unrest. Both sides seem confident in their victory, which does not bode well for the post-election environment. Still, Lichtmann remains optimistic, arguing that issues were addressed before the election rather than after, which indicates a more proactive approach to addressing potential election fraud and irregularities.
As the election approaches, the public's patience and the US' collective spirit will be tested. The outcomes and their immediate aftermath will undoubtedly shape the direction of the nation for the coming years.