Is the COE System Effectively Limiting Car Ownership in Singapore? Alternative Approaches for Success

When it comes to evaluating the COE system for limiting car ownership in Singapore, the answer depends on the specific indicators you are aiming to optimize. On one hand, anecdotal evidence suggests that the system is working. Singaporeans generally spend less time commuting by car compared to their regional counterparts. This could indicate a more efficient transportation system. However, when assessing broader quality of life indicators, the picture is less clear.

Effectiveness of the COE System

The COE system operates through a dual-price mechanism, with the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) price fluctuating based on supply and demand dynamics. When demand is high and supply is low, the COE price skyrockets, making car ownership less affordable, thus reducing the overall number of cars on the road. This market-based approach has been successful in controlling car ownership, although it comes with challenges, such as affordability and income distribution concerns.

Alternative Non-Market-Based Solutions

While the current system is a functional market-based approach, alternative non-market-based solutions have proven effective in influencing consumer behavior. One noteworthy example is the Australian government's strategy to reduce smoking, which introduced plain packaging for tobacco products. By forcing cigarette packaging to be uniform and unappealing, the government reduced the ability of consumers to differentiate between brands, ultimately leading to a decrease in smoking rates.

In the realm of transportation, non-market-based solutions can also achieve the desired outcome. For instance, in the book Nudge, the concept of speed cameras displaying a driver's current speed compared to the legal limit has shown success. When drivers are aware of their current speed, they tend to slow down, thereby reducing speeding behavior. This suggests that awareness and visual cues can significantly impact driving behavior without the need for restrictive regulations.

Introduction of Household Quotas and District Quotas

To further explore non-market-based solutions, introducing fixed household quotas could be a feasible approach. A potential proposed solution is as follows:

N-1 car or 1 motorcycle per HDB residence: This ensures that each Housing Development Board (HDB) property is allowed one vehicle, promoting balanced ownership. N-2 cars or 2 motorcycles per private property: Private properties with one or two private landed or semi-detached homes would be allowed two vehicles, promoting healthy ownership patterns without overwhelming road space. N-3 cars or 3 motorcycles per private property: Properties with three or more private residences would be allowed three vehicles, accounting for larger households or those with additional transportation needs. Neighborhood Quotas: Another solution is implementing district quotas, where a fixed number of vehicles is allocated per residential area. For example, District 9 might have a total allowance of 15,000 motor vehicles. This number would be adjusted annually based on changes in residential developments and road and traffic conditions, ensuring that the quota remains relevant and effective.

This approach not only promotes a more balanced distribution of vehicles across different types of residential properties but also ensures that urban planning remains aligned with transportation needs.

Conclusion

The effectiveness of the COE system for limiting car ownership in Singapore is mixed, depending on the metrics used. While it has been successful in reducing traffic congestion and improving commuting times, it may not fully address quality of life indicators. Exploring alternative non-market-based solutions, such as fixed household quotas and neighborhood quotas, can offer a more nuanced approach to managing car ownership in Singapore. These methods can ensure a sustainable and balanced transportation system that improves overall quality of life for residents.