Realistic Timelines for Alternative Energy-Powered Personal Vehicles Overtaking Conventional Automotives
It is a challenging task to predict the exact timeline for the transition from conventional automotives to alternative energy-powered personal vehicles. While experts are offering "wild-ass guesses", one certainty is the exponential growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids replacing internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. This article will explore various factors influencing this transition and provide a forecast based on current trends.
California’s Leadership and Future State Regulations
California's leadership in the adoption of electric vehicles is undeniable. California has set a groundbreaking goal that by 2035, no gas-powered cars will be sold in the state. Hybrids, which also utilize gasoline, are not considered in this ban. Similar measures are expected to roll out in other states, leading to a nationwide shift in the automotive market.
Current Trends and Growth Patterns
The rate of replacement is becoming increasingly fast. Previously, the doubling time for the number of EVs was measured in months when the numbers were small. Now, it has doubled roughly every two years, which is a significant increase from the initial rates. If this trend continues, it would take approximately 30 years to replace the current fleet of about 230 million vehicles in the U.S. However, experts predict that the rate will likely slow down as the total number of EVs approaches 10 million, with an increase expected at a rate of about 20 new EVs per year.
At the current doubling rate, it is estimated that there could be 10 million EVs by 2032. This represents about 5% of the total fleet. From there, the rate is expected to slow, taking 17 more doubling periods to achieve a further significant increase. If manufacturers continue to produce EVs at the current rate, by the mid-2070s, EVs could make up more than half of the current fleet. However, my personal estimation is that this transition might be complete by 2050, with EVs becoming the standard option.
Public Transit and Fleet Size Impact
Public transit improvements could play a crucial role in reducing the overall car fleet. If more people opt for public transportation, this could significantly impact the number of personal vehicles. Furthermore, the rate at which EVs increase is expected to leveling off soon. These factors suggest that the timeline for individual car replacements will extend beyond the mid-2070s.
The Market and Consumer Behavior
Consumer behavior and market conditions will also affect the timeline of this transition. Cost reduction and increased affordability of EVs, as well as the rising cost of gasoline, are critical factors. If EVs drop to a price of 25,000 dollars and gas hits 5 per gallon consistently, the transition could accelerate. This would likely reduce the demand for ICE vehicles and potentially lead to a significant shift in the market.
Additionally, the availability of gas could be affected as gas stations close due to the decreased demand for gasoline. This could further drive the transition towards electric vehicles and alternative fuels.
Conclusion and Final Predictions
While it is impossible to provide an exact date for the complete transition to electric vehicles, it is more than likely that the last running ICE vehicles will not be on the road until after 2080, with most new car sales still being ICE. By 2050, EVs could become the standard option in personal transportation. However, the market and consumer behavior will ultimately determine the speed of this transition.