The Future of Internal Combustion Vehicles: Not Obsolete Yet
Despite the hype surrounding electric vehicles (EVs), most people believe that internal combustion engines (ICEs) won't vanish from the automotive landscape anytime soon. Some common misconceptions exist, such as the idea that EVs might completely replace ICEs, or that when battery replacements become too expensive, these vehicles will be rendered obsolete. This article explores these ideas and offers a more realistic outlook on the future of ICEs.
Will Electric Vehicles Finally Overtake Internal Combustion Engines?
Many believe that electric vehicles will become the primary mode of heavy transport, but physics and economics have protective mechanisms that ensure the survival of ICEs. For instance, the energy storage capacity of batteries hasn't changed enough to facilitate this transformation. Even if battery technology does improve, the infrastructure and economic factors that currently favor ICEs are formidable.
What Happen to ICE Vehicles When They're No Longer Trusted?
When ICEs become less popular, what will happen to the millions of existing cars and trucks powered by these engines? The general trend has been similar to the transition from horse-drawn transportation. Horses were useful for many decades before eventually being relegated to farms, sold for scrap, or preserved as antiques.
Most ICE vehicles will probably be used until they fall apart. As some individuals stick to traditional vehicles out of habit, nostalgia, or necessity, ICEs will persist. People still ride horses and own horse-drawn carriages. The same fate awaits many ICEs as they will be used until they break down or become too costly to maintain.
The Slow Adoption of Electric Vehicles
Current projections show that EV adoption is slow. There are approximately 3.3 million electric vehicles on U.S. roads, which is a significant number. However, this stands in stark contrast to the 288.5 million internal combustion vehicles already in circulation. For EVs to become the norm, their range, charging infrastructure, and affordability must significantly improve.
As more EV models enter the market, offering a variety of styles and price points to cater to different needs and budgets, more people will consider making the switch. Battery technology advancements and expanding charging stations will play key roles in accelerating this transition. Additionally, the cost of owning and maintaining an EV needs to be comparable to that of an ICE vehicle.
What Will Happen to Older ICE Vehicles?
When ICEs do start to decline in popularity, what will happen to the millions of older vehicles already on the road? Most of these older vehicles will be sold or sold for parts, rather than scrapped immediately. Many will find new lives in developing countries where the cost of a new EV is prohibitive. Auctioned-off vehicles often get shipped to Mexico, Central, and South America, where the second-hand market demands vehicles that are more affordable to repair and maintain.
For many low-income families, an old ICE car can be an affordable alternative to a new EV, as the cost of ownership and maintenance is lower. Additionally, these older vehicles can still be worked on without requiring expensive diagnostic tools and high-tech parts. In these regions, they are often more desirable than newer vehicles because they are more practical for basic transportation needs.
In conclusion, while electric vehicles are rapidly gaining popularity, it's unrealistic to assume that internal combustion engines will be rendered obsolete in the near future. The transition will be slow and gradual, with many older ICE vehicles finding new homes or being sold as parts in various parts of the world.